GENERAL OVERVIEW
The past week saw BTC reaching its all-time high price and then falling back to earth. All the cryptosphere basically fell accordingly, with top projects clearly suffering behind. The tone was, therefore, cleraly switched in a somehow abrupt fashion. The market fell together with legacy financial markets. Particularly in the US, inflation rising is becoming more and more of a concern, with interest rates rising and outflows from the best performing stocks of the past months. It is not the first time that BTC fell or rise together with the stock market, with last March immediately coming to mind.
Interestingly enough, BTC has been several time proposed as an asset capable of providing inflation hedging. Eventually, this feature is going to become more apparent in the long term, so we are not particularly worried about such episodes. At the same time, however, one could question if it is time to link further evaluation models for stocks and altcoins. The latter are, in a lot of cases, possibly more similar to the asset of a company than BTC. Developments of evaluation models are going to be crucial for the cryptocurrency market to fully mature and broaden the spectrum of potential crypto suitors at an institutional level.
As already mentioned, BTC reached an all-time high price of 58’325 USD on February 22th. It then fell down to 45’000 USD area a couple times, despite closing the week with a marginally positive day. The violation of 50’000 USD as a support level was not a good sign in itself. However, considering the performance of last month, some air gaps in the uptrend are natural. At this point, BTC being able to reach again 50’000 USD is going to be interpreted as a great sign of strenght. Otherwise, we are hopefully going through a lateral phase in the 40’000-50’000 USD range. In this case, that could be time for altcoins to shine and get back some of BTC’s dominance.
Overall, altcoins underperformed BTC as represented by our indexes.
TOP PROJECTS
All but one of the cryptos we cover reported negative results. The median return was -22.53%, which is an impressive 36 percentage points lower than last week.
Cardano (ADA) has been the best performer and the only positive one, reporting a +32.12% return w/w for a price of 1.23 USD per coin. After an update of its testnet at the beginning of February, Cardano saw increasing interest among investors. At the same time, on-chain metrics and activity are showing clear improvements. ADA climbing the market capitalization ranking is therefore perfectly consistent with such a situation and the overall very positive mood in the cryptocurrency market.
Dash (DASH) was the last crypto in terms of return. It reported a -29.67% performance w/w in order to close at 221 USD.
On a wider period, BNB has retraced since last week but it is still vastly overperforming all its peers.
TECHNICALS
Looking at the last seven days’ prices, the above paragraph on ADA is perfectly represented. Cardano is the only project showing a current level near the top of its trading range, while all the others are in a weakest situation.
Looking at technicals, on a 30-days setting, MACD is depicting the worst situation among all the indicators. The market seems to be in a difficult situation and possibly some rough days are still in front of it. However, not all the indicators stress the same, with Moving Averages flashing the exact opposite in terms of health.
On a monthly basis, ADA is still the coin trading nearest to the upper bound of their range.
We proceed to have a look at the frequency distributions of the coins’ price in terms of satoshis to have a look at the relative performances. BNB found a fair level after the price excursion of last week, with ADA a candidate for repeating this pattern during the next one.
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DISCLAIMER
The views expressed in this report reflect the analysts’ personal views about the cryptocurrencies subject of the report. These views may change without notice and are subject to market conditions. The report is prepared for information purposes only and by no means constitutes a solicitation to investment or disinvestment. All the data are taken from Binance at 14:00 UTC on the 13th November 2020. USD and USDT are used interchangeably for illustration purposes. All the presented valuations, indicators, and analyses are subject to errors. The report is for personal use only and should not be republished or redistributed
