Monethical Weekly Crypto Report 04/03/20

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GENERAL OVERVIEW

The last seven days have been mildly positive for the top cryptocurrency projects. Among the thirteen projects that we cover, all but one have recorded a positive result, with Stellar Lumens being the only exception.

The cryptocurrency market as a whole is still following the trend of traditional financial markets, experiencing weakness due to the Coronavirus outbreak. The general uncertainty among investors about the perspectives of the global economy has not spared cryptos, which have not shown the decorrelation hoped by investors looking for a safe haven. Still, things are taking a good turn.

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The past week has been the third consecutive positive one for Bitcoin, which keeps gaining ground after the debacle of the first week of March and is now trading at 6777 USD. BTC also tried to test again its 99-period weekly moving average, which is now acting as a resistance, with the attempt resulting in a fail.

In the meantime, the buzz around the halving event which is expected in May continues, leaving investors doubtful but hopeful about a price increase possibly due to less offer of BTC around with the same level of demand.

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TOP PROJECTS

As already mentioned, the top cryptocurrency projects have registered a good performance during the week, on the back of BTC result. Bitcoin dominance is stable at around 65%, which seems to be the new market equilibrium after several months of it hovering around 70%.

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Despite the overall no bad performance, it cannot be said that the week has been an exciting one, with none of the projects we cover experiencing a double-digit increase or decrease. Cardano (ADA) has been the best performer, closing the week at 0.032 USD with a 6.23% w/w return, while Dash (DASH) experienced the highest volatility. ADA kept rising after its release of the Ouroboros Hydra off-chain scalability protocol during the last week of March. The protocol is said to be theoretically able to process millions of transactions per second, which is far more than the number allowed by the current most diffused payment systems. Despite the good week, Cardano is still among the worst projects of the last 30 days in terms of performance and its price has, therefore, still margin to recover.

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On the other hand, Stellar Lumens (XLM) has been the worst performer of the week in our sample and the only one registering a negative result. It closed at 0.041 USD with a -1.77% w/w performance, which is nothing to worry about in absolute terms given also that the coin held its own with respect to the majority of the other big projects during the last 30 days.

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TECHNICALS

The technical setting of the projects of our sample with respect to the last 7 days reflects the current rebound being in place among altcoins in the market.

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Still, none of the projects closed the week near to the max, despite relative levels of 50 periods and 200 periods moving averages still convincingly signalling a positive moment. MACD is starting to flash a possible inversion of the upward trend, while none of the coin bar Monero (XMR) is currently overbought according to RSI. On a 30 days horizon, MA50 and MA200 are on the other hand not providing a buy signal, despite all of the projects being comfortably far from the minimum. XMR is the only overbought project in the sample according to RSI, while MACD indicates a positive setting for all of them.

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It is also interesting to have a look at the frequency distributions of the coins’ price in terms of satoshis in order to have a look at the relative performances. The relative weakness of Ethereum (ETH) stands out, as well as the one of Ethereum Classic (ETC). Cardano is trying to gain back some ground, while XMR is trading at a relatively high level which reflects the overbought situation flashed by the RSI also with respect to USD. On a shorter time horizon, the weakness of ETH disappears while ETC is still trading on the left hand of the distribution. XMR still appears to be the only project convincingly trading on the high end of its relative value to BTC according to the distribution.

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